Are we really objective?
submitted 3 months 2 days 19 hours ago by: Babarzm : 16 comments
I was making a comparison between two sets of information that I came across today.
The first one is a Gallop poll survey reported in The News, which claims 64 of Pakistani rejects economic accomplishment and good government during last nine-year tenure of Musharraf. The second one is an email I received from a Musharraf supporter who came up with a comparison between state of Pakistani economy of year 1999 and 2007.
What interested me most was the difference between actual economic development vs. peoples perception. Perhaps it is not the actual development that derives the perception. Or at least there are other factors that determines the strength of correlation. I have posted both 1) The link to The News report and 2) Text from email.
Do you guys/gals agree to my understanding? What in your opinion are the key factors influencing negative relation between perceived and actual economic performance?
1) The News:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=52588
2) Email text:
Pak Economy in 1999 was: $ 75 billion
Pak Economy in 2007 is: $ 160 billion
GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 1999: $ 270 billion
GDP Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 2007: $ 475.5 billion
GDP per Capita in 1999: $ 2,000
GDP per Capita in 2007: $ 3,004
Pak revenue collection 1999: Rs. 305 billion
Pak revenue collection 2007: Rs. 708 billion
Pak Foreign reserves in 1999: $ 700 million
Pak Foreign reserves in 2007: $ 17 billion
Pak Exports in 1999: $ 7.5 billion
Pak Exports in 2007: $ 18.5 billion
Textile Exports in 1999: $ 5.5 billion
Textile Exports in 2007: $ 11.2 billion
KHI stock exchange 1999: $ 5 billion at 700 points
KHI stock exchange 2007: $ 70 billion at 14,000 points
Foreign Direct Investment in 1999: $ 1 billion
Foreign Direct Investment in 2007: $ 8 billion
Debt servicing 1999: 65% of GDP
Debt servicing 2007: 26% of GDP
Poverty level in 1999: 34%
Poverty level in 2007: 24%
Literacy rate in 1999: 45%
Literacy rate in 2007: 53%
Pak Development programs 1999: Rs. 80 billion
Pak Development programs 2007: Rs. 520 billion
Under Musharraf's vision
Ø · 9 world class Engineering universities being developed and 18 Public universities already developed.
Ø · Public sector institutions have increased from 110,267 (in 1999) to become
Ø · Private sector institutions have increased from 36,096 (in 1999) to become 81,103 (in 2006).
Ø · PAK is 3rd best in world Banking profitability.
Ø · PAK IT industry now values around $2 billion, including $1 billion exports and employs around 90,000 professionals.
Ø · CNG sector has attracted over $70 billion investment in last 5 years; and created 45,000 jobs.
Ø · Telecom sector attracted around $10 billion in investment and created above 1.3 million jobs.
Ø · Industrial Parks are being setup throughout the country for the
first time! M3 estate, Sunder industrial estate, Chakri, etc.
Ø ·
Major Mega projects like the Saindak, Rekodiq, Marble production, Coal
production and Mining & Quarrying are being pursued.
Ø · In 2006, GDP growth is 6%. Earlier in 1999 was 3.5%.
Ø · Foreign Reserves from $1 bn to $17 bn.
Ø · KHI stock market: from 700 points to 13,000 points.
Ø · Literacy rate improved by 11%.
Ø · Poverty decreased by 10%.
Ø · He made 4 dams: Mirani, Subakzai, Gomalzam, Khurram Tangi dams.
Ø · 6 Motorways completed or under construction: M1, M3, M8, M9, M10, M11.
Ø · Six major highways under construction.
Ø · GWADAR advance mega Sea port developed under his vision!
Ø · Historic 100% increase in Tax collection of $11 billion.
Ø · Large scale manufacturing is 30 year high, and Construction activity is 17 year high.
Ø · Newly found World class copper- gold deposits in Chagai will fetch $600 million per year.
Ø · A new Oil refinery with UAE will fetch $5 billion & will process 300,000 oil barrels a day.
Ø · Industrial sector registered 26% growth.
Ø · PAK in 1999 was a $75 billion economy; and now 2006 it's $160 billion economy!
Ø · PAK economy is now the 3rd fastest growing economy after China & India .
Education sector development
In 1999-2000 there were 31 Public Universities. Now 2005-2006 there are 49
Public Universities. Under Musharraf 20 NEW UNIVERSITIES SET UP!
Ø · Air University (established 2002)
Ø · Institute of Space technology, ISB (established 2002)
Ø · Sardar Bahadur Khan Women University , Quetta (established 2004)
Ø · University of Science & Technology, Bannu (established 2005)
Ø · University of Hazara (founded 2002)
Ø · Malakand university, Chakdara (established 2002)
Ø · University of Gujrat (established 2004)
Ø · Virtual University of Pak, Lahore (established 2002)
Ø · Sarhad University of IT, Peshawar (established 2001)
Ø · National Law University, ISB (2007)
Ø · Media University, ISB (2007) etc.
Ø · University of Education , Lahore (2002)
Ø · Lasbella University of Marine Sciences, Baluchistan (2005)
Ø · Baluchistan University of IT & Management, Quetta (2002), etc.
Pakistan now has a total of 245,682 Educational institutions in all categories,
including 164,579 (i.e. 67 percent) in the Public sector and 81,103
(i.e. 100 percent) in the private sector, reports the National
Education Census (NEC-2005). The census -- jointly conducted by the
Ministry of Education, the Academy of Educational Planning and
Management (AEPAM) and the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) --
reveals that the number of private-sector institutions has increased
from 36,096 in 1999-2000 to 81,103 in 2005, i.e. by 100 per cent.
Total 99,319 Educational Institutions (Public & Private) have increased in Musharraf Era
Comments
Unfortunately such a huge number of academic institututes could not help to produce quality education in real terms. See yourself! 99,319 Educational Institutes can only increase literacy rate by 8%. What a pity it is
Nice play on numbers; however, some key factors are absent
1. In 1998 Ruppee exchange rate was 44.5/$1 Musharraf took over in Oct 1999 and that coupled with the nuclear tests drove the exchange rate to close at 51.90 for the year. In Jan 08 the exchange rate was 63.50 effectively wiping out 30% of the gains that you lovingly report. (we won't even take into account the current rate, though we should but you would rather blame the new 6 month old govt for it so we'll desist)
2. Pakistan's external debt ballooned from $37 billion in 1999 to $47 billion in 2007 (and I thougt we GAINED $10 billion in US aid over this period?!) And lets not forget over $10 billion dollars in rescheduled debt; payments on which are now coming due (Ah, there goes your debt servicing difference)
Internal debt ballooned from $29 billion to $50 billion over the same period
3. Last but not the least inflation jumped by almost 3 points for all indices over the same period
Let's not forget that there can be no blame on this 6 month old government as it comes to term with the fiscal mess left by the previous one; what we are feeling are still the repercussions of the previous policies.
So try as you might to put a spin on Musharraf's presidency; the harsh truth is that he did not preside over a golden era unless you are looking at the golden haze of the fiery blaze that is sweeping across the nation
Thank you Khalifah but no thanks.
I will try to ignore you for this specific Buzz. Your opinionated
speech is not helping me in understanding what I am actually trying
to do here.
For convenience of other readers I am writing my purpose again:
What in your opinion are the key factors influencing negative
relation between perceived and actual economic performance?
Plant a tree
Unbelieveable; I just answered your question but apparently its not clear enough for you to see.
You are approaching this from the view that actual performance is actually good, I am pointing out that perception is in line with the actual performance...extremely poor
Just to be sure, let's go over this
You are not even questioning the ingeniously manipulated numbers and are taking them at face value. What I have done is to put those numbers in perspective to show you that the numbers may be different but the story they tell is the same if not worse than the one we were listening to in October 1999 before we were rudely interrupted
TheSophisticated,
Increasing literacy rate of 160 million people by 8% is an achievement in itself. I don't know how the formula should work but if I understand you correctly then 8% means 4 to 5 million additional literates. 5 million is not small number e.g. 5 million is 1/4 of total Australian population or in other words if Australian government would have provided education to an additional 5 million, that government would have enjoyed a great degree of popularity.
You will also appreciate the fact that not all of the institutions are foundation level institutions. If you really want a true comparison than instead of comparing the number of literates, you should also be comparing the number of highly educated i.e. B.A, BSE, B-Com and higher.
Having said that, the purpose of my discussion was not to debate on above stated facts but find the reasons for gap between actual performance and perceived performance.
Lets take your case as example. Are you really certain that these additional 99,319 educational institutions did not serve the rightful purpose or is it due to your dislike for the man that you have decided to contradict any argument that highlights his achievements?
I am only trying to discover factors that influence perceived performance as actual performance in this specific case seem to have a negative correlation with perceived performance.
Regarding Musharaf Era, the figures might be correct or not as its need reality verification. Whatever Musharaf did or not, he was not liked as General and President due to Marshal Law, But in West he was liked due to his Western Style of Humour or showing West Muslims are modernised.Allah saved his life in 3 suicides and he faced many challenges and he resigned, its also a good sign.He did i think whatever he could do, i.e. He made some changes in the system which show some progress and his downfall come due to some wrong decision and thats all but as a solider he fight back till he can. If he keep doing good things we might like him still.
People of Pakistan, Well we all dont like any person in power for so much long time, we think other persons should also get chance in power, no matter, we put pakistan in worse hands like MR.ZARDARI (10%). Nawaz might be less corrput but he dont hold any real power to do things and he is behind Zardari. Now we all as people of pakistan might be soon start hating them also both, but will it solve our problems, NO
Similarly, when a mother tries to be strick with her son, Son dont like the mother. we as nation also dont think that may b one policitical leader is doing the right thing when some strick policies are taken in action. We all live in the world of war on terror and where muslims are consider terror. As a nation, we are not progressing such that we can advance our technology to over come crisis of ELECTRIC POWER, WATER, FOOD and EMPLOYMENT.
Musharaf, whatever did, we should be expecting this because everyone is living for himself. because when someone Dies on street or killed daily due to Suicide bombing we think.... Some fellow just Die like that.... and keep enjoying the GEO TV.........but if someone dies from your family, then you may b understanding the reality factor.
Bottom Line!, Musharaf did bad or good, Whats gona happen now!?..... are people of pakistan still will wait.... for some angel to come down fix the things...... who can stop the electric loadsheding..... or what!
We must think unity to work ahead.... and if Zardari is not progressing he must come down .... bcoz he stays in power or not.... Crisis cannot finish yet now!, I also recently come to know Mr.Zardari took billions of loan from State Bank of Pakistan in just few months! So are we Bothered abt him? or Just Musharaf?
(personal comments so no hard feelings to anyone)
http://www.asimkh.blogspot.com
no no it's not that I dislike him. My disliking list incluses Nawaz and Zardari also at the same extend.
You are just playing the number game. Reality on ground is totally different. I personally know many students of some of these universities and colleges, in fact I was attachedwith a university for some time (not mentioning the name) but it was pathetic to see that these newly built inst. are just running business not producing quality education. And how far these simple BA or BSE are contributing to the economic development. Education without vocational knowledge or any skill is useless. Have checked the unemployment rate?
I used to say that I would have been earning double if learnt to repair AC/tv/fridge with my degree
For Babarzm
In fact what you call the actual economic developement that itself is the problem. If Mr. Musharaf speaks about the economic growth during his reign. It was the period when all investment came in Asia after 9/11 and the countries with better planning (like India) capitalised this opportunity. the economic development you see was on the cards. but it could have been much more than we got, had our govt. planned it well.
If he speaks about his policies then why he could not stabilize the economy during this depression with his magical stategies.
During his speach he himself said "Pakistan is among 11 progressing nations after top 5, which include India too (in top 5)
Think!
exactly, our foreign reserves mainly increased due to the foreign remittances which came into the country after 9/11
Mr. Musharraf was a person making both negative and positive effects on Pakistan.
RizSh
Thank you Asim, TheSophisticated, Rizzy84 and Waseem. I will appreciate if you can also answer following questions:
1- If you were in Musharraf's position, what were two/three things that you would not have done that he did?
2- What are two/three things that you would have done better - which he did not do properly or did not do at all?
Remember that purpose of my buzzvine post was to understand factors that influence people perception of Musharraf's performance. Lets see if with the help of this exercise we can highlight a few deriver of his performance perception. Once these factors are listed we can use them as inputs to see if financial performance perception had a correlation with few or all of those factors.
Please simply list using following format:
Things that I wouldn't have done:
1.
2.
3.
Things that I would have done/done better:
1.
2.
3.
Plant a tree
What are you trying to prove here, Babar as this no longer seems to be a yearning for truth? Are you trying to prove that Musharraf was the best thing that ever happened to Pakistan? How anyone can justify or even condone military takeover of a country is beyond MY understanding. Extremely unpatriotic if you ask me
Perhaps my message was not that clear last time Khalifah. Do I have to spell out the two letter word to make you understand.
Plant a tree
Well I am not about to let you hoodwink everyone into believing that somehow Musharraf's rule was beneficial. I have already refuted your lengthy economic claims and stand ready to undermine your efforts at immortalizing Musharraf.
Like I said you are starting with the assumption that the economic indicators are GOOD, well they are not so the rest of the debate is mute.
Let's asume this statistics report is true, but as a Muslim we must take a look at source of our income whether it is Halal or haram. Yes, the foreign reseves, stock exchange position, mobile phones and road/bridge development during this regime is touching the sky, BUT what is the main source of income? We lost our dignity, we lost our stand on Kashmir issue, we lost control on our borders and we SOLD parts of our body, our countrymen.
No if someone offers you a 2000CC luxury car and a 50,000 rupee valued mobile phone and a gold chain and a luxury rist-watch, would you accept it? of course, why no? BUT the condition is that you have to walk in streets, naked... how's that? would you still accept it? I don't think if any Pakistani could even think about accepting this offer, BUT the MUSH1 regime did, they just accepted every offer just for money and they sold doughter of the nation too, Dr. Afia Siddiqui.
Hell to the economical development, do give me a statistical report on dignity of the nation :P
Exactly my point. We judge everything on scale of our like or dislike instead of being objective.
Plant a tree